Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
