Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
